Anacyclosis: Government Cycles and the Rise of Warlords

What do the Colorado apartment complex takeover by a Venezuelan migrant gang and South Africa’s zama zamas have in common?

Hardly a week goes by without news reports of violence by zama zamas in South Africa. Zama zamas are illegal mining gangs in South Africa. The illegally occupy closed or operational mines to mine for minerals such as gold, iron ore, coal, and manganese. They are well armed and they are violent.

On the other side of the ocean we had news this past week about a violent and armed Venezuelan migrant gang taking over an apartment complex in Colorado, U.S.

So what do they have in common? It indicates that the U.S. and South Africa are at a similar stage in the governmental cycle.

Anacyclosis

According to the theory of Anacyclosis, governments naturally move through a predictable sequence of forms, from monarchy to tyranny, aristocracy to oligarchy, democracy to ochlocracy (mob rule), and eventually returning to monarchy. The theory has roots in Greek philosophy, particularly from the works of historians like Polybius, who viewed history as a repeating cycle of government systems, rather than a linear progression.

Anacyclosis posits that no form of government is permanent. As the ruling class, whether monarchs, aristocrats, or democrats, becomes corrupt and power imbalances grow, the system degenerates into a more tyrannical and chaotic form until a new, virtuous leader or class arises, restarting the cycle. The theory suggests that political decline is as inevitable as political ascent.

The Cycle of Government Forms

1. **Monarchy**: The cycle begins with a virtuous ruler, a monarch who governs wisely and justly for the benefit of the people. However, over time, the monarch's descendants or successors become more concerned with personal power than public welfare, leading to the next stage.

2. **Tyranny**: When a monarchy degenerates, the ruler becomes a tyrant, driven by greed and the desire to maintain absolute control. This oppressive rule eventually sparks revolt or resistance from the nobility or a group of influential citizens.

3. **Aristocracy**: After the fall of tyranny, a group of noble or virtuous citizens (an aristocracy) takes power. Their rule is based on merit, virtue, and the common good, ensuring stability for a time. But, as with monarchy, aristocracies become corrupt over generations, favoring personal interests over the common good.

4. **Oligarchy**: The aristocracy then degenerates into an oligarchy, where power is concentrated in the hands of a few wealthy individuals. The focus shifts from governing for the benefit of the many to enriching the elite class, sowing discontent among the wider population.

5. **Democracy**: As dissatisfaction grows, the people rise up and establish a democracy, where citizens have a direct or representative say in governance. In its pure form, democracy is based on equality, liberty, and the rule of law. However, as democratic systems mature, they too become susceptible to decay, with leaders increasingly pandering to the masses and eroding institutional safeguards.

6. **Ochlocracy (Mob Rule)**: Democracy eventually deteriorates into ochlocracy, or mob rule, where emotion, populism, and demagoguery take precedence over reason and law. Government becomes performative, with leadership transitions having little meaningful impact on people's daily lives. Leaders manipulate public opinion to maintain power, and society becomes chaotic, with instability prevailing until a new monarch emerges, starting the cycle anew.

Assessing the United States and South Africa in the Cycle

**United States**:

The U.S. is regarded as one of the most successful democracies, with a long history of constitutional governance and checks and balances. However, in recent years, the U.S. has been showing signs of decay typical of the transition from democracy to ochlocracy. The rise of populist leaders, polarization, and a weakening of institutional norms suggest the U.S. is entering a period of mob rule. Public sentiment is increasingly driven by emotion rather than reason. Political discourse has become more divisive, and elected leaders are making decisions based on short-term popularity rather than long-term strategy.

**South Africa**:

South Africa, even with its relatively young democracy, is also on the precipice of an ochlocracy. After the fall of apartheid in the 1990s, widespread corruption, the ANC’s cadre deployment, general incompetence and looting of public coffers has quickly pushed the country to an oligarchic state. Key institutions have been weakened, and public trust in government has eroded. South Africa is now teetering on the edge of complete democratic collapse.

Collapse of Central Authority and the Rise of Warlords

As democracy decays into ochlocracy, society becomes chaotic, driven by popular emotion rather than law and reason. State institutions become weak and law enforcement breaks down - localized strongmen or warlords will emerge to fill the power vacuum. They offer protection or enforce their order through violence, marking the beginning of a breakdown in formal state governance and the rise of fragmented, regional rule. It remains to be seen what the U.S. government can do about these Venezuelan gangs, that is if the will to do so even exists. Considering how the U.S. government is importing more and more illegals from Haiti, Mexico and elsewhere, indications are they won’t do anything.

As is the case with the zama zamas in South Africa where even the police fear them, the Venezuelan gang takeover of the Colorado apartment block shows that the U.S. government and law enforcement has grown weak.South Africa and the U.S is on the precipice of full blown chaos, which will herald a new golden age for warlords.

Christianity

The most interesting observation about the Anacyclosis theory as expounded by Polybios is that in the ochlocracy (mob rule) stage, citizens become morally compromised. This period of the cycle coincides with a decline in religious belief and societal cohesion, as people lose faith not only in their gods but also in their social institutions and future. They focus on immediate gratification, leading to widespread hedonism, the pursuit of wealth, and falling birth rates.

Look at the world around us and tell me that is not what we see.